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Amid the considerable disarray regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation saw its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and seize its president – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the headless administration are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.