Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”