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Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots that came in later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible in which election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner gained 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump last year went for Zohran now. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured we might go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I wish he does because then none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on the island who had a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the property owners and residents all went for the independent. Thus there existed some opposition. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. Plus, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if existed major surprises here, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that every city in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.